Friday March 25 CSL Meeting

Most of CSL will be attending the Association of American Geographers’ Annual Meeting in San Francisco, CA from March 29–April 2. Please join us on Friday in CSA 311 from 2:00–3:00 p.m. for practice presentations by some of our undergraduate researchers

The Usage of SMAP Data and NLDAS for Modeling Power Outages

Brittany Toy

Abstract: Electric power utilities make many critical decisions in the days prior to hurricane landfall that are primarily based on the estimated impact to their service area. Accurate forecasts of the impact of an approaching hurricane within their service area are critical for utilities in balancing the costs and benefits of different levels of resources. The Spatially Generalized Model (SGHOPM) developed by Guikema et al. (2014) utilizes predictions of tropical cyclone wind speed and duration of strong winds, along with environmental variables (e.g., soil moisture, long-term precipitation) to provide a spatiotemporal forecast of power outages at the census tract level. Soil moisture is one of the environmental variables, used to represent antecedent moisture conditions and soil stability. We need soil moisture conditions in the days leading up to hurricane landfall at high resolution. At present we are using a land-surface model to estimate soil moisture conditions for each census tract. We propose to compare the effectiveness of the SMAP (simulated) soil moisture data relative to the land-surface model for modeling power outages in the Central and Eastern United States using random hold-out testing.

Utility of In Situ Soil Moisture for Drought Early Warning in California

Ryann Elizabeth Hall

Abstract: This study evaluates the utility of in situ soil moisture observations for drought early warning in California and Nevada in the western United States. More specifically, we will assess the utility of the SNOTEL stations in the Sierra Nevada mountains for providing drought early warning. This region is critical because it is responsible for generating more than half of California's water supply. Soil moisture is used to identify the onset of meteorological drought events and these results are compared to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The USDM is used to validate the identification of drought events and to determine whether in situ soil moisture provides early warning of drought onset (i.e., it leads the USDM). Drought early warning is important since it can provide decision makers with advanced notification of the onset of drought conditions and this can be used to inform drought mitigation strategies, including reservoir management.