Friday April 22 CSL Meeting

Determining temperature persistence in the SCIPP region in relation to improved seasonal forecasting
Presenter: Zack Leasor
Time: Friday 22 April, 2:00-3:00 p.m.
Location: 311 CSA

Abstract: The Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) has developed a climate region encompassing six states located in the south central United States. Improved seasonal forecasting could help to mitigate the impacts of extreme heat, a prominent climate hazard in the SCIPP region. Temperature anomalies in the SCIPP region exhibit temporal autocorrelation from month to month, and the magnitude of temperature persistence can provide information that is useful for seasonal climate forecasts. Using high resolution PRISM gridded temperature data from 1900-2015, this study will attempt to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature persistence at various time lags in the SCIPP region. Initial results suggest that temperature persistence is strongest during the summer months, and decreases as the lag time increases. Most statistically significant temporal autocorrelations are present at month-to-month timescales, however some locations do see significant temperature persistence at longer lag times. By examining the spatiotemporal distribution of temperature persistence, this information can be utilized in order to determine when and where it is most appropriate to weigh heavily on persistence in constructing a seasonal temperature forecast.

Month-to-month temporal autocorrelation of temperature anomalies during March to April (left) and July to August (right).